Decomposition analysis on factors affecting electricity substitution in Guangdong province, China

Electricity substitution is an effective measure for reducing pollutant emissions and promoting the consumption of renewable energy. The current research lacks a quantitative analysis method factors affecting regional electricity substitution. This article proposes decomposition model based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index to expand depth breadth Results show that: (1) Macro-level in Guangdong province develops steadily, with 1694.93 × 108 kWh total quantity during period 2006–2020. production sector accounts 83.92% total, which much larger than that household sector. (2) Sustained improvement labour productivity gives largest contribution (3592.32 kWh) increase Living standard effect has (452.21 Electrification level population have significant impact development, while industrial structure little (3) Energy intensity energy growth negatively influence province. decline driven decrease quantity, contributing −2540.36 Policy implications like continuously breakthroughs technologies, electrification rate sectors potential substitution, price mechanism fossil fuels can promote deepening development realisation carbon neutrality goal.